The drum never changes. Only the paperwork does. Build a supply chain, decide what each company does with the certificate it receives, and see what reaches the child.
01
The Consignment
Does anyone test it?
Toxic glycol (DEG/EG) actually in the drum
15.0% w/w DEG or EG
What the certificate says
GLYCERIN 99.5% — unverified
Taixing called its product TD glycerin — ti dai, substitute. The certificate that travelled with it declared 99.5% pure glycerin, and it kept saying so at every subsequent company.
Probability the material reaches production undetected
100%
Detection assumptions — change them
These are modelling assumptions, not measured rates. They are here so you can disagree with them. The conclusion below is not sensitive to any of them within a plausible range.
0% detected
2% detected
55% detected
99% detected
02
The Bottle
Taken as directed
Diethylene glycol in the finished syrup
48.6% w/v
Child weight
10 kg
Dose volume
5.0 mL
Doses per day
3×
Doses to reach the lethal estimate
5.1
1.7 days at this schedule
If the estimate is twice too high—
If it is twice too low—
Lethal dose assumption — change it
The figure in general circulation traces to work published in 1937. The human data behind it are thin and the published range is wide. Move it and watch what does not change.